In 2003, ABAG updated the housing loss estimates in the report Preventing the Nightmare to be consistent with the scenarios used in the USGS Working Group 2002 probability models. The housing loss model is based on building damage data from past California earthquakes. For more information on the assumptions used in this model, see sources.
How large will housing losses be?
The Loma Prieta earthquake caused a total of over 16,000 uninhabitable units throughout the Monterey and San Francisco Bay Areas. Thirteen of the 18 potential Bay Area earthquake scenarios have a far larger impact than the Loma Prieta Earthquake. Many Bay Area faults can generate earthquakes and every Bay Area county is significantly affected by at least two. Several of the larger earthquakes will impact several counties severely.
Source: The following estimates of uninhabitable units for Bay Area counties in selected earthquake scenarios is summarized from the ABAG 2003 report Preventing the Nightmare. Download the full table.
|Earthquake Scenario||Alameda||Contra Costa||Marin||Napa||San Francisco||San Mateo||Santa Clara||Solano||Sonoma||Total|
|Loma Prieta – actual data||3,284||0||2||0||9,202||76||408||0||0||12,972|
|1906 repeat – Entire Bay Area San Andreas||16,048||1,173||3,495||20||82,354||24,472||29,593||185||2,530||159,870|
What building types will be affected?
Source: The following estimates of uninhabitable dwelling units by building type is summarized from Shaken Awake!, ABAG 1996. Find more information about impacts of past California earthquakes on buildings
|Construction Type Data for Earthquake Scenarios||Mobile Homes||URM||Wood
1-3 Stories <1940 Single Family
1-3 Stories >1939 Single Family
|Loma Prieta – actual data||101||1,936||2,901||301||75|
|1906 repeat – Entire Bay Area San Andreas||9,581||11,543||110,113||6,909||1,699|
How many people will need shelter?
Source: Preventing the Nightmare, ABAG 1999